Afghanistan and Iraq--$2 Trillion Dollar Graveyards of Armies

Abstract

This thesis explores the projection of violent direct action in the case of Iraq and Afghanistan since 2007 through May 2011. Machine-coded events data from the free, publicly available, on-line Reuters archives was fitted to both regressor and time series models to test the hypothesis of self-feeding, vicious cycle of violence that grapples both of these countries up through 2011, even as US troops are moving out. The models offering the best statistical fit were used to generate forecasts for the number of expected hostile attacks in June 2011.