Preliminary global assessment of terrestrial biodiversity consequences of sea level rise mediated by climate change

Abstract

Considerable attention has focused on the climatic effects of global climate change on biodiversity, but few analyses and no broad assessments have evaluated the effects of sea level rise on biodiversity. Taking advantage of new maps of marine intrusion under scenarios of 1 m and 6 m sea level rise, we calculated areal losses for all ecoregions globally, with areal losses for particular ecoregions ranging from nil to complete. Marine intrusion is a global phenomenon, but is most prominent in Southeast Asia and nearby islands, eastern North America, northeastern South America, and western Alaska. Making assumptions regarding responses to reduced distributional area by species endemic to ecoregions, we estimated likely numbers of extinction caused by sea level rise, and found that marine-intrusion-caused extinctions of narrow endemics is most prominent in northeastern South America, although anticipated extinctions in smaller numbers are scattered worldwide. This assessment serves as a complement to recent estimates of losses owing to changing climatic conditions, considering a dimension of biodiversity consequences of climate change that has not previously been taken into account.