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    An evaluation of transferability of ecological niche models

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    Qiao_2018.pdf (3.712Mb)
    Issue Date
    2018-08-18
    Author
    Qiao, Huijie
    Feng, Xiao
    Escobar, Luis E.
    Peterson, A. Townsend
    Soberón, Jorge
    Zhu, Gengping
    Papeş, Monica
    Publisher
    Wiley Open Access
    Type
    Article
    Article Version
    Scholarly/refereed, publisher version
    Rights
    © 2018 The Authors. Ecography © 2018 Nordic Society Oikos.
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    Abstract
    Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is used widely to study species’ geographic distributions. ENM applications frequently involve transferring models calibrated with environmental data from one region to other regions or times that may include novel environmental conditions. When novel conditions are present, transferability implies extrapolation, whereas, in absence of such conditions, transferability is an interpolation step only. We evaluated transferability of models produced using 11 ENM algorithms from the perspective of interpolation and extrapolation in a virtual species framework. We defined fundamental niches and potential distributions of 16 virtual species distributed across Eurasia. To simulate real situations of incomplete understanding of species’ distribution or existing fundamental niche (environmental conditions suitable for the species contained in the study area; N* F ), we divided Eurasia into six regions and used 1–5 regions for model calibration and the rest for model evaluation. The models produced with the 11 ENM algorithms were evaluated in environmental space, to complement the traditional geographic evaluation of models. None of the algorithms accurately estimated the existing fundamental niche (N* F ) given one region in calibration, and model evaluation scores decreased as the novelty of the environments in the evaluation regions increased. Thus, we recommend quantifying environmental similarity between calibration and transfer regions prior to model transfer, providing an avenue for assessing uncertainty of model transferability. Different algorithms had different sensitivity to completeness of knowledge of N* F , with implications for algorithm selection. If the goal is to reconstruct fundamental niches, users should choose algorithms with limited extrapolation when N* F is well known, or choose algorithms with increased extrapolation when N* F is poorly known. Our assessment can inform applications of ecological niche modeling transference to anticipate species invasions into novel areas, disease emergence in new regions, and forecasts of species distributions under future climate conditions.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/1808/31055
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.03986
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    • Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Scholarly Works [1450]
    Citation
    Qiao, H., Feng, X., Escobar, L.E., Peterson, A.T., Soberón, J., Zhu, G. and Papeş, M. (2019), An evaluation of transferability of ecological niche models. Ecography, 42: 521-534. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.03986

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    KU Libraries
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    785-864-8983

    KU Libraries
    1425 Jayhawk Blvd
    Lawrence, KS 66045
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    Contact KU ScholarWorks
    785-864-8983
    KU Libraries
    1425 Jayhawk Blvd
    Lawrence, KS 66045
    785-864-8983

    KU Libraries
    1425 Jayhawk Blvd
    Lawrence, KS 66045
    Image Credits
     

     

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