Ecological niche model comparison under different climate scenarios: a case study of Olea spp. in Asia

View/ Open
Issue Date
2017-05-19Author
Ashraf, Uzma
Peterson, A. Townsend
Chaudhry, Muhammad Nawaz
Ashraf, Irfan
Saqib, Zafeer
Ahmad, Sajid Rashid
Ali, Hassan
Publisher
Ecological Society of America
Type
Article
Article Version
Scholarly/refereed, publisher version
Rights
© 2017 Ashraf et al.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Ecological niche modeling (and the related species distribution modeling) has been used as a tool with which to assess potential impacts of climate change processes on geographic distributions of species. However, the factors introducing variation into niche modeling outcomes are not well understood: To this end, we used seven algorithms to develop models (Maxent, GARP, BIOCLIM, artificial neural networks, support‐vector machines, climate envelope, and environmental distance) to estimate the potential geographic distribution of olives (Olea europaea sensu lato, including Olea ferruginea) under two climatic data sets (current 2000 and future 2050). Five general circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios were used as predictor variables in future projections of the geographic potential of this species; models were fit at global extents (10′ spatial resolution) but transferred and interpreted for a region of particular interest in Central Asia, which largely avoids problems with truncation of niche estimates. We found marked differences among approaches in predicted distributions and model performance, as well as in the future distributional pattern reconstructed, from one algorithm to another. These general approaches, when model‐to‐model variation is managed appropriately, appear promising in predicting the potential geographic distribution of O. europaea sensu lato and thus can be an effective tool in restoration and conservation planning for wild populations, as well as possible commercial plantations of this species.
Collections
Citation
Ashraf, U., A. T. Peterson, M. N. Chaudhry, I. Ashraf, Z. Saqib, S. Rashid Ahmad, and H. Ali. 2017. Ecological niche model comparison under different climate scenarios: a case study of Olea spp. in Asia. Ecosphere 8(5):e01825.10.1002/ecs2.1825
Items in KU ScholarWorks are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
We want to hear from you! Please share your stories about how Open Access to this item benefits YOU.