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    Seasonal Forecasting of Global Hydrologic Extremes: System Development and Evaluation over GEWEX Basins

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    Issue Date
    2015-11
    Author
    Yuan, Xing
    Roundy, Joshua K.
    Wood, Eric F.
    Sheffield, Justin
    Publisher
    AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
    Type
    Article
    Article Version
    Scholarly/refereed, publisher version
    Rights
    © Copyright November 2015, American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (https://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyrights@ametsoc.org.
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    Abstract
    Seasonal hydrologic extremes in the form of droughts and wet spells have devastating impacts on human and natural systems. Improving understanding and predictive capability of hydrologic extremes, and facilitating adaptations through establishing climate service systems at regional to global scales are among the grand challenges proposed by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and are the core themes of the Regional Hydroclimate Projects (RHP) under the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). An experimental global seasonal hydrologic forecasting system has been developed that is based on coupled climate forecast models participating in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project and an advanced land surface hydrologic model. The system is evaluated over major GEWEX RHP river basins by comparing with ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). The multimodel seasonal forecast system provides higher detectability for soil moisture droughts, more reliable low and high f low ensemble forecasts, and better “real time” prediction for the 2012 North American extreme drought. The association of the onset of extreme hydrologic events with oceanic and land precursors is also investigated based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations. Climate models have a higher probability of missing the onset of hydrologic extremes when there is no oceanic precursor. But oceanic precursor alone is insufficient to guarantee a correct forecast—a land precursor is also critical in avoiding a false alarm for forecasting extremes. This study is targeted at providing the scientific underpinning for the predictability of hydrologic extremes over GEWEX RHP basins and serves as a prototype for seasonal hydrologic forecasts within the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS).
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/1808/22185
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00003.1
    Collections
    • Civil, Environmental & Architectural Engineering Scholarly Works [119]
    Citation
    Yuan, X., Roundy, J. K., Wood, E. F., & Sheffield, J. (2015). Seasonal Forecasting of Global Hydrologic Extremes: System Development and Evaluation over GEWEX Basins. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96(11), 1895–1912. doi:10.1175/bams-d-14-00003.1

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    Contact KU ScholarWorks
    785-864-8983
    KU Libraries
    1425 Jayhawk Blvd
    Lawrence, KS 66045
    785-864-8983

    KU Libraries
    1425 Jayhawk Blvd
    Lawrence, KS 66045
    Image Credits
     

     

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