The potential distribution of the Vulnerable African lion Panthera leo in the face of changing global climate

Abstract

The objective of this study is to estimate possible impacts of global climate change on the geographical distribution of the African lion Panthera leo in the coming decades. Current lion population occurrence data across Africa and distributions of lions in historical times (6,000–100 years before present) were obtained from the literature and integrated with data on present-day climates to generate ecological niche models. Models based on distributions of African lions were tested for predictive ability based on various subsetting approaches and were projected across Asia, Africa and Europe, to retrodict the distribution of the species for the past 6,000 years. These models were highly accurate, giving confidence in future projections. Future potential distributions were predicted by projecting ecological niche models onto three climate scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions based on eight climate models for the years 2040–2070. The prediction was of relative range stability into the future: few new areas were identified as becoming suitable for the species but large areas of southern Africa and West Africa are expected to become less suitable. Predictions of effects of climate change on potential distributions of lions may assist conservation efforts by clarifying options for mitigation and response.