The potential distribution of the Vulnerable African lion Panthera leo in the face of changing global climate
Issue Date
2014-06-03Author
Peterson, A. Townsend
Radocy, Thomas
Publisher
Cambridge University Press
Type
Article
Article Version
Scholarly/refereed, publisher version
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
The objective of this study is to estimate possible impacts of global climate change on the geographical distribution of the African lion Panthera leo in the coming decades. Current lion population occurrence data across Africa and distributions of lions in historical times (6,000–100 years before present) were obtained from the literature and integrated with data on present-day climates to generate ecological niche models. Models based on distributions of African lions were tested for predictive ability based on various subsetting approaches and were projected across Asia, Africa and Europe, to retrodict the distribution of the species for the past 6,000 years. These models were highly accurate, giving confidence in future projections. Future potential distributions were predicted by projecting ecological niche models onto three climate scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions based on eight climate models for the years 2040–2070. The prediction was of relative range stability into the future: few new areas were identified as becoming suitable for the species but large areas of southern Africa and West Africa are expected to become less suitable. Predictions of effects of climate change on potential distributions of lions may assist conservation efforts by clarifying options for mitigation and response.
Description
This is the publisher's version, also available electronically from http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9276854&fileId=S0030605312000919
ISSN
0030-6053Collections
Citation
Peterson, A.Townsend et al. (2013). Potential geographic distribution of the African lion in the face of changing global climate. Oryx. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0030605312000919
Items in KU ScholarWorks are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
We want to hear from you! Please share your stories about how Open Access to this item benefits YOU.