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  • ItemOpen Access
    Predicting History: What Works and What Doesn't
    (University of Kansas Libraries, 2026-02) Taylor, James B.
    This book is about large scale, ambitious predictions—the kinds of predictions historians might make if they could truly foretell the future. It is about the prediction of war and peace, the prediction of depressions and recessions, the prediction of the rise and fall of nations and empires. It is about technological predictions and the prediction of populations and economics, about the prediction of climate change and politics. It is about how such predictions have been made in the past and about how they might better be made in the future. In this book we search for accurate predictions and how they got made. We look at several approaches. The first approach seeks to forecast the big happenings by looking at major trends and processes. Such efforts may look ahead for a century or more, and they seek general principles. We also look at some of the big surprises in recent history. These are the events that appear out of the blue, without warning or prediction, and suddenly seem to transform the world. The 1990 dissolution of the USSR was one such surprise; the 2016 election of President Trump was another. For each such unexpected surprises we ask, “Who succeeded in predicting this? And on what basis?” We do the same for other big events—for economic booms, for inflations and depressions, for the rise and fall of empires, for the development of new technologies, and for the coming of wars. For each we ask, “Who succeeded in predicting this? And how?” We draw our lessons accordingly. The book ends by bringing these pieces together, and by using what we’ve learned to predict aspects of the next fifty years. We suggest some general rules for prediction—the forecasting procedures that seem to work best. We also note some things to avoid.
  • PublicationOpen Access
    Big Five Traits and Self-Determination in Preferences for Working in Person: The Moderating Role of Communication Overload
    (Emerald Publishing, 2026-01-15) Cui, Wenrong; Piercy, Cameron W.; Smith, Stephanie; Zhu, Yaguang
    Purpose: This study examines how Big Five traits and self-determination needs influence employees’ return-to-office preferences after mandatory remote work, and how communication overload (CO) moderates these relationships. Design: A survey of 301 full-time U.S. employees was analyzed using hierarchical regression and PROCESS moderation models. Findings: Extraversion and relatedness related to in-person preference, while conscientiousness, autonomy, and competence favored remote work. CO moderated several personality and self-determination traits, such that higher CO generally weakened or reversed the associations with in-person workplace preference, generally bolstering remote work preferences. Value: This study integrates personality psychology, self-determination theory, and CO to explain workplace preferences. It reveals how overload conditions alter trait-based predictions, offering practical insights for managing common hybrid work environments. Findings contribute a novel perspective on digital-era workplace behavior, emphasizing the need for tailored communication and organizational flexibility.
  • ItemOpen Access
    “Help for Overcoming Problem Eating” (HOPE) Single Session Intervention
    (Wiley, 2024-08-22) Negi, Sonakshi
    “Help for Overcoming Problem Eating” HOPE is a novel, digital, self-guided, single-session intervention developed to address binge-eating concerns among college students. HOPE has shown high acceptability for college students. HOPE has also shown preliminary promise in reducing eating disorder symptoms for college students with binge-eating problems.
  • PublicationOpen Access
    The Federal Trade Commision and False Advertising: 1969 to 1985
    (University of Kansas, 1986-12-31) Bayer, Leslie Russo
    The Federal Trade Commission, in the late 1960's, was viewed by critics as weak and ineffectual. When the consumer movement became popular in the late 1960's and early 1970's it brought sweeping changes at the FTC. Spurred by popular support, consumer movement leaders such as Ralph Nader put pressure on the government to change laws and policies to expand the reach of the agency. The result was a noticeable increase in the number of cases against advertisers in the years that followed. Many new laws were passed and standards for unfairness and deception were liberalized. The FTC became a champion for consumer protection. As attention on the consumer movement waned, the case load at the FTC began to diminish. Then the 1980's brought a new administration with policies for deregulation and cut backs in government spending. The logical conclusion was that the FTC was again becoming ineffectual. However, an examination of charges brought and remedies used in a sample of false advertising cases from 1969 to 1984 indicates the opposite. The FTC got carried away during the early '70's and charged advertisers with offenses that not always represented any clear harm to consumers. The late '70s and '80s saw proportionately more false advertising cases with real potential harm to consumers than did the span when the FTC was more visible.
  • PublicationOpen Access
    A Descriptive Analysis of First, Third and Fifth Grade Children's Use of Space, Weight, Time, Flow and Shape as Defined in Laban Movement Analysis
    (University of Kansas, 1986-05-31) Baker, Allison
    The purpose of this study was to describe first, third and fifth grade children's use of Space, Weight, Time, Flow and Shape as defined by Rudolf Laban, in eight prescribed walking activities. Space, Weight, Time, Flow and Shape are the Effort/Shape elements defined in Laban Movement Analysis. The Efforts are the inner motivations which cause a movement to happen. The Shaping elements related to the Efforts describe the way the body shapes itself in any environmental situation. A child needs a full range of Effort/Shape possibilities within his movement vocabulary to develop: 1) a sense of individual and personal movement capacities, 2) a sense of appropriate movement in social settings, 3) an awareness of movement in group situations, and 4) self-confidence and a positive body image. For this study, 111 first, third and fifth grade children were videotaped performing the eight walking activities during their physical education classes. The videotapes were then viewed and the way each child used the Effort/Shape elements was recorded on a scoresheet table. The frequency that each grade level used each element was tallied and these numbers were placed in contingency table. From the Statistical Package for Social Sciences, the program Crosstabs was applied to each table. These analyses determined that there is a significant relationship between grade/level age characteristics and Space, Time, Flow and the shaping elements Widening/Narrowing. From these findings, it was concluded that there were developmental trends in the subjects' ability to use Space, Time, Flow and Wide/Narrow shaping from the first to the fifth grade. The recommendations from this study were that more attention be given to encourage children in the use of the Effort/Shape elements and that creative movement or physical education curricula should require children to learn a broad range of movement choices. For further study, it was recommended that a similar study be conducted with considerations for sex and various approaches to physical education. A longitudinal study following subjects from the first to the sixth grade was also suggested as well as a study which would compare an invariant physical education approach to a reflective approach. Finally, to determine the ease of teaching other people how to use Effort/Shape as a tool for evaluating children, a group of physical educators could be trained to rate the videotapes. Then their rater reliability could be computed.