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Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change
Heald, C. L. Henze, D. K. Horowitz, L. W. Feddema, Johannes J. Lamarque, J. F. Guenther, A. Hess, P. G. Vitt, F. Seinfeld, J. H. Goldstein, A. H.
Heald, C. L.
Henze, D. K.
Horowitz, L. W.
Feddema, Johannes J.
Lamarque, J. F.
Guenther, A.
Hess, P. G.
Vitt, F.
Seinfeld, J. H.
Goldstein, A. H.
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Abstract
The sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentration to changes in
climate and emissions is investigated using a coupled global atmosphere-land model
driven by the year 2100 IPCC A1B scenario predictions. The Community Atmosphere
Model (CAM3) is updated with recent laboratory determined yields for SOA formation
from monoterpene oxidation, isoprene photooxidation and aromatic photooxidation.
Biogenic emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes are simulated interactively using the
Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols (MEGAN2) within the Community Land
Model (CLM3). The global mean SOA burden is predicted to increase by 36% in 2100,
primarily the result of rising biogenic and anthropogenic emissions which independently
increase the burden by 26% and 7%. The later includes enhanced biogenic SOA
formation due to increased emissions of primary organic aerosol (5–25% increases in
surface SOA concentrations in 2100). Climate change alone (via temperature, removal
rates, and oxidative capacity) does not change the global mean SOA production, but the
global burden increases by 6%. The global burden of anthropogenic SOA experiences
proportionally more growth than biogenic SOA in 2100 from the net effect of climate and
emissions (67% increase predicted). Projected anthropogenic land use change for
2100 (A2) is predicted to reduce the global SOA burden by 14%, largely the result of
cropland expansion. South America is the largest global source region for SOA in the
present day and 2100, but Asia experiences the largest relative growth in SOA production
by 2100 because of the large predicted increases in Asian anthropogenic aromatic
emissions. The projected decrease in global sulfur emissions implies that SOA will
contribute a progressively larger fraction of the global aerosol burden.
Description
Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.
0148-0227/08/2007JD009092
Date
2008-03
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American Geophysical Union
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Heald, C. L., et al. (2008), Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future
climate, emissions, and land use change, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D05211, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009092