The Skeptical Public: Economic Conditions and Individual Trade Policy Preferences

Abstract

Public opinion literature has shown that the foreign policy attitudes of the American electorate are ideologically coherent and are fairly stable over long periods of time. Research also determined that a number of social and political factors influence public opinion. However, little attention has been paid to the relationship between economic conditions and public opinion. This study uses survey data from the American National Election Study (ANES) to determine whether the economic environment influences public support for new limits on foreign imports. My analysis suggests that economic conditions are a statistically significant predictor of trade preferences in only two of my five logit models. The results lead me to infer that economic conditions have little impact on individual trade policy preferences. In contrast, I find that education and gender are important predictors of trade preferences. Future studies should consider additional ways that economic conditions might influence public attitudes on trade and other foreign policy issues.