Equal Opportunity, Market Preference and Voter Turnout: An Analysis of the 1996, 32000, and 2004 U.S Presidential Elections

Abstract

This article examines how the American political tradition both constrains and enables voter turnout in United States presidential elections. Specifically I examine the impact of the American Creed, defined as the intersection of beliefs in equal opportunity, market preference, and individual responsibility, on voter turnout. Using data from the 1996, 2000, and 2004 American National Election Surveys, I develop a unified vote choice model and test it using multinomial logistic regression. While the idea that people will choose to vote when they feel strongly about an issue or value is intuitive, my findings show that the American Creed acts as “master frame,” or “lens,” that both constrains and enables turnout by limiting the “acceptable” motivations to vote. Specifically, I find that support for equality increases Democratic turnout but has no effect on Republican turnout. Similarly, support for market preferences increases Republican turnout but has no effect on Democratic turnout. I close with a discussion of the implications on the health of U.S. democracy, and the importance of including the choice of abstention in voting behavior research.