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    Shifting Global Invasive Potential of European Plants with Climate Change

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    journal.pone.0002441.pdf (367.6Kb)
    Issue Date
    2008-06-18
    Author
    Peterson, A. Townsend
    Stewart, Aimee M.
    Mohamed, Kamal I.
    Araújo, Miguel B.
    Publisher
    Public Library of Science
    Type
    Article
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    Abstract
    Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055) climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/1808/5467
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0002441
    Collections
    • Biodiversity Institute & Natural History Museum Scholarly Works [299]
    • Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies Scholarly Works [738]
    • Distinguished Professors Scholarly Works [918]
    • Ecology & Evolutionary Biology Scholarly Works [1516]
    • Kansas African Studies Center Scholarly Works [272]
    Citation
    Peterson AT, Stewart A, Mohamed KI, Araújo MB, 2008 Shifting Global Invasive Potential of European Plants with Climate Change. PLoS ONE 3(6): e2441. http://www.dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0002441

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    Contact KU ScholarWorks
    785-864-8983
    KU Libraries
    1425 Jayhawk Blvd
    Lawrence, KS 66045
    785-864-8983

    KU Libraries
    1425 Jayhawk Blvd
    Lawrence, KS 66045
    Image Credits
     

     

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