ATTENTION: The software behind KU ScholarWorks is being upgraded to a new version. Starting July 15th, users will not be able to log in to the system, add items, nor make any changes until the new version is in place at the end of July. Searching for articles and opening files will continue to work while the system is being updated.
If you have any questions, please contact Marianne Reed at mreed@ku.edu .
Shifting suitability for malaria vectors across Africa with warming climates
dc.contributor.author | Peterson, A. Townsend | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2009-08-26T21:57:34Z | |
dc.date.available | 2009-08-26T21:57:34Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2009-05-10 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Peterson, A. T. 2009. Shifting malaria transmission risk across Africa with warming climates. BMC Infectious Diseases 9:59; doi:10.1186/1471-2334-9-59 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1808/5426 | |
dc.description.abstract | Background Climates are changing rapidly, producing warm climate conditions globally not previously observed in modern history. Malaria is of great concern as a cause of human mortality and morbidity, particularly across Africa, thanks in large part to the presence there of a particularly competent suite of mosquito vector species.Methods I derive spatially explicit estimates of human populations living in regions newly suitable climatically for populations of two key Anopheles gambiae vector complex species in Africa over the coming 50 years, based on ecological niche model projections over two global climate models, two scenarios of climate change, and detailed spatial summaries of human population distributions.Results For both species, under all scenarios, given the changing spatial distribution of appropriate conditions and the current population distribution, the models predict a reduction of 11.3–30.2% in the percentage of the overall population living in areas climatically suitable for these vector species in coming decades, but reductions and increases are focused in different regions: malaria vector suitability is likely to decrease in West Africa, but increase in eastern and southern Africa.Conclusion Climate change effects on African malaria vectors shift their distributional potential from west to east and south, which has implications for overall numbers of people exposed to these vector species. Although the total is reduced, malaria is likely to pose novel public health problems in areas where it has not previously been common. | |
dc.language.iso | en_US | |
dc.publisher | BioMed Central Ltd | |
dc.subject | Malaria | |
dc.subject | Climate change | |
dc.title | Shifting suitability for malaria vectors across Africa with warming climates | |
dc.type | Article | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1186/1471-2334-9-59 | |
dc.rights.accessrights | openAccess |
Files in this item
This item appears in the following Collection(s)
-
Biodiversity Institute & Natural History Museum Scholarly Works [320]
-
Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies Scholarly Works [736]
Publications by faculty affiliated with the Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies -
Distinguished Professors Scholarly Works [918]
-
Ecology & Evolutionary Biology Scholarly Works [1572]
-
Kansas African Studies Center Scholarly Works [272]
Publications by faculty and researchers affiliated with the Kansas African Studies Center