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dc.contributor.authorGhosh, Shyamolina
dc.contributor.authorSheppard, Lawrence W.
dc.contributor.authorReid, Philip C.
dc.contributor.authorReuman, Daniel
dc.date.accessioned2022-09-19T20:01:06Z
dc.date.available2022-09-19T20:01:06Z
dc.date.issued2020-11-10
dc.identifier.citationGhosh S, Sheppard LW, Reid PC, Reuman D. A new approach to interspecific synchrony in population ecology using tail association. Ecol Evol 2020;10:12764–12776. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.6732en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1808/33527
dc.description.abstractStandard methods for studying the association between two ecologically important variables provide only a small slice of the information content of the association, but statistical approaches are available that provide comprehensive information. In particular, available approaches can reveal tail associations, that is, accentuated or reduced associations between the more extreme values of variables. We here study the nature and causes of tail associations between phenological or population-density variables of co-located species, and their ecological importance. We employ a simple method of measuring tail associations which we call the partial Spearman correlation. Using multidecadal, multi-species spatiotemporal datasets on aphid first flights and marine phytoplankton population densities, we assess the potential for tail association to illuminate two major topics of study in community ecology: the stability or instability of aggregate community measures such as total community biomass and its relationship with the synchronous or compensatory dynamics of the community's constituent species; and the potential for fluctuations and trends in species phenology to result in trophic mismatches. We find that positively associated fluctuations in the population densities of co-located species commonly show asymmetric tail associations; that is, it is common for two species’ densities to be more correlated when large than when small, or vice versa. Ordinary measures of association such as correlation do not take this asymmetry into account. Likewise, positively associated fluctuations in the phenology of co-located species also commonly show asymmetric tail associations. We provide evidence that tail associations between two or more species’ population-density or phenology time series can be inherited from mutual tail associations of these quantities with an environmental driver. We argue that our understanding of community dynamics and stability, and of phenologies of interacting species, can be meaningfully improved in future work by taking into account tail associations.en_US
dc.publisherWiley Open Accessen_US
dc.rights© 2020 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.en_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_US
dc.subjectAphidsen_US
dc.subjectCopulaen_US
dc.subjectInterspecies synchronyen_US
dc.subjectMatch–mismatch hypothesisen_US
dc.subjectPlanktonen_US
dc.subjectTail associationen_US
dc.titleA new approach to interspecific synchrony in population ecology using tail associationen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
kusw.kuauthorGhosh, Shyamolina
kusw.kuauthorSheppard, Lawrence W.
kusw.kuauthorReuman, Daniel
kusw.kudepartmentEcology and Evolutionary Biologyen_US
kusw.kudepartmentKansas Biological Surveyen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/ece3.6732en_US
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5137-9933en_US
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9032-2059en_US
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1407-8947en_US
kusw.oaversionScholarly/refereed, publisher versionen_US
kusw.oapolicyThis item meets KU Open Access policy criteria.en_US
dc.rights.accessrightsopenAccessen_US


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© 2020 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as: © 2020 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.