Kansas Population Projections

Abstract

The Kansas population projections were prepared for the state's Legislative Educational Planning Committee to estimate future higher education enrollments. They are primarily targeted for research purposes because of limitations regarding the use of 1980 Census data.

Both state and county projections were developed by using the cohort-­survival method, the standard demographic technique, which combines the effects of mortality, fertility and migration to project changes in the age composition of the future population. Current data were available for deaths and births and their predicted future change. In the absence of more recent data, the historic migration rates (1975-80) published by the U.S. Census Bureau provided the basis for developing migration rates for the projection which have been adjusted by the 1987 Census population estimates to incorporate more recent trends in statewide migration patterns. Since the projections are based on historic (1980 Census) data and represent an extrapolation of current trends in migration, they should not be viewed as immutable or as an exact forecast, but should be regarded as broad indicators of future population levels. In particular, the projections for counties with a major higher educational facility or military institution should be treated with great caution and are considered less reliable. This is attributable to difficulties in tracing the actual migration patterns of the student and military population every census decade.