U.S. and Economic Forecasts Midyear Update 1988

Abstract

Highlights: 1. National economic growth will slow in 1989 following strong growth in the balance of 1988 and the first half of next year. 2. Interest rates are expected to rise modestly in 1988 and slightly faster in 1989. 3. The inflation rate will continue to increase, to an average of 4. 5 percent for the first half of 1989. 4. Nonresidential investment spending and exports will drive demand for the remainder of 1988 and on into 1989. 5. The Kansas economy will also show relatively strong growth during the balance of 1988, with some slowing down likely in 1989. However, Kansas will continue to grow at a slightly slower rate than the national average over this period. 6. Durable goods, retail trade, services, and mining will lead Kansas employment growth in 1988. 7. Unemployment rates in both Kansas and the nation will fall during 1988, and they will not increase in the first half of 1989. The Kansas unemployment rate will remain below the national average. 8. In 1988 civilian employment growth in Kansas will trail national growth by nearly 0.3 percent. 9. Personal income will grow more rapidly in both Kansas and the nation during the next 12 months, but Kansas's growth will be about 1 percent slower than the nation's. During 1988, Kansas personal income will grow 5.7 percent, and U.S. personal income will grow 6.6 percent.