A Study on the Applicability of the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory on Welfare Policy among Emerging Democracies: Focused on Central and Eastern Europe

Abstract

This study attempts to examine if the pattern suggested by the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET) is observed in the Central and Eastern Europe countries’ (CEECs) welfare policy. This study has three distinct findings. First, the PET can be extended to emerging democracies, while most existing PET literature focuses almost exclusively on established ones. Second, the PET is a more comprehensive approach in the welfare literature than the previously dominant theories, in the sense that the PET captures both incremental and non-incremental changes in a more coherent way that the traditional theories fail to. Third, the extent of punctuatedness can differ depending on the degree of institutionalization, institutional friction, and the property of welfare program: 1) It is bigger in CEECs than in old democracies because CEECs have not experienced enough institutionalization. 2) It is ambiguous whether more institutional friction does lead to an increase in the extent of punctuatedness, which challenges the established PET evidence. Rather, it appears that, at least surrounding welfare policy, less institutional friction is linked to higher level of punctuatedness both in mature welfare states and in CEECs. 3) Even though all three welfare programs surely shape the pattern of the PET, old-age pensions remain relatively more stable than unemployment and sick pay insurance.