Party and Group Dynamics on the Topic of Immigration in Western Europe

Abstract

The predictive ability of voter behavior theories is based on their reflection of reality. Currently, research on voting behavior does not account for the distinct differences between partisans and independent voters; this is a significant failing. The image of the average voter as a strong partisan with attitudes that are congruent with the traditional left-right spectrum is disappearing; increasingly they are independent, issue voters who favor issues that do not align with the traditional party and left-right ideological structures. Instead of drawing on a partisan lens to filter new information, independent voters must form opinions from the political environment and personal experiences about ‘hot button issues'. Parties themselves must determine which issues to engage during the campaign in order to entice independent voters, while not alienating partisans. I argue that theories of voting behavior must take into account the differences between partisans and independents because they are two distinct groups of voters with different reference points for issue evaluation and psychological mechanisms for attitude formation. Using the topic of immigration as an example of a prototypical 'hot button issue' this project explores the role that 'hot button issues' play on attitude formation and issue congruence in Western Europe for partisans and non-partisans. The changing nature of politics influences how different voter groups behave in the political environment, and as scholars we need to evaluate theories of voter behavior with this in mind if we are to understand the new political environment.