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    Assessing the Influence of Temporal Autocorrelations on the Population Dynamics of a Disturbance Specialist Plant Population in a Random Environment

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    Issue Date
    2017-08-07
    Author
    Eager, Eric Alan
    Pilson, Diana
    Alexander, Helen M.
    Tenhumberg, Brigitte
    Publisher
    University of Chicago Press
    Type
    Article
    Article Version
    Scholarly/refereed, publisher version
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    Abstract
    Biological populations are strongly influenced by random variations in their environment, which are often autocorrelated in time. For disturbance specialist plant populations, the frequency and intensity of environmental stochasticity (via disturbances) can drive the qualitative nature of their population dynamics. In this article, we extended our earlier model to explore the effect of temporally autocorrelated disturbances on population persistence. In our earlier work, we only assumed disturbances were independent and identically distributed in time. We proved that the plant seed bank population converges in distribution, and we showed that the mean and variance in seed bank population size were both increasing functions of the autocorrelation coefficient for all parameter values considered, but the interplay between increasing population size and increasing variability caused interesting relationships between quasi-extinction probability and autocorrelation. For example, for populations with low seed survival, fecundity, and disturbance frequency, increasingly positive autocorrelated disturbances decreased quasi-extinction probability. Higher disturbance frequency coupled with low seed survival and fecundity caused a nonmontone relationship between autocorrelation and quasi-extinction, where increasingly positive autocorrelations eventually caused an increase in quasi-extinction probability. For higher seed survival, fecundity, and/or disturbance frequency, quasi-extinction probability was generally a monotonically increasing function of the autocorrelation coefficient.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/1808/27312
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1086/692911
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    • Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Scholarly Works [1404]
    Citation
    Eric Alan Eager, Diana Pilson, Helen M. Alexander, and Brigitte Tenhumberg, "Assessing the Influence of Temporal Autocorrelations on the Population Dynamics of a Disturbance Specialist Plant Population in a Random Environment," The American Naturalist 190, no. 4 (October 2017): 570-583. https://doi.org/10.1086/692911 PMID: 28937813

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    KU Libraries
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    KU Libraries
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    Lawrence, KS 66045
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    Contact KU ScholarWorks
    785-864-8983
    KU Libraries
    1425 Jayhawk Blvd
    Lawrence, KS 66045
    785-864-8983

    KU Libraries
    1425 Jayhawk Blvd
    Lawrence, KS 66045
    Image Credits
     

     

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