The information herein is available for unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction provided that the original work is properly cited as indicated by the Creative Commons Attribution licence (CC BY).
The Americas are presently experiencing the most serious outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV) known. Here, we present a novel set of analyses using environmental characteristics, vector distributions, and socioeconomic risk factors to develop the first map to detail global ZIKV transmission risk in multiple dimensions based on ecological niche models. Our model predictions were tested against independent evaluation data sets, and all models had predictive ability significantly better than random expectations. The study addresses urgent knowledge gaps regarding the potential geographic scope of the current ZIKV epidemic, as well as the global potential for spread. It also provides a highly informative view of potential drivers of ZIKV distributions globally, pointing out areas vulnerable in terms of some drivers, but not in others. The results of these analyses can guide regional education and preparedness efforts, such that medical personnel will be prepared for diagnosis of potential ZIKV cases as they appear.
This paper was submitted to the Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz on 14 April 2016 and was posted to the Zika Fast Track site on 15 April 2016, according to the protocol for public health emergencies for international concern as described in Dye et al. (2016) (http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.16.170860).
Per the policy of Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, the DOI listed in this record will not be active until the article is published in the journal.
Samy AM, Thomas SM, El Wahed AA, Cohoon KP, Peterson AT. Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread [Submitted]. Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. E-pub: 15 April 2016. doi: 10.1590/0074-02760160149.
Items in KU ScholarWorks are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
We want to hear from you! Please
share your stories
about how Open Access to this item benefits YOU.
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as: The information herein is available for unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction provided that the original work is properly cited as indicated by the Creative Commons Attribution licence (CC BY).
The University of Kansas prohibits discrimination on the basis of race, color, ethnicity, religion, sex, national origin, age, ancestry, disability, status as a veteran, sexual orientation, marital status, parental status, gender identity, gender expression and genetic information in the University’s programs and activities. The following person has been designated to handle inquiries regarding the non-discrimination policies: Director of the Office of Institutional Opportunity and Access, IOA@ku.edu, 1246 W. Campus Road, Room 153A, Lawrence, KS, 66045, (785)864-6414, 711 TTY.