Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread

Abstract

The Americas are presently experiencing the most serious outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV) known. Here, we present a novel set of analyses using environmental characteristics, vector distributions, and socioeconomic risk factors to develop the first map to detail global ZIKV transmission risk in multiple dimensions based on ecological niche models. Our model predictions were tested against independent evaluation data sets, and all models had predictive ability significantly better than random expectations. The study addresses urgent knowledge gaps regarding the potential geographic scope of the current ZIKV epidemic, as well as the global potential for spread. It also provides a highly informative view of potential drivers of ZIKV distributions globally, pointing out areas vulnerable in terms of some drivers, but not in others. The results of these analyses can guide regional education and preparedness efforts, such that medical personnel will be prepared for diagnosis of potential ZIKV cases as they appear.