Terror Attacks and the Duration of Civil War

Abstract

Several factors that scholars have thought relate to the duration of civil war including: low per capita income, ethnic divisions, resources/contraband, and terrain were found to have no correlation to the duration of civil war. Another factor that scholars have suggested relates to the duration of civil war is rebel group strength. It has been found that a rebel group with weak military capacity may prolong a civil war. Weak rebel groups use irregular tactics and an irregular tactic that a weak rebel group may use is terrorist attacks. The contribution of this thesis is that it analyzes a variable that few scholars have looked at which is tactics, specifically terrorist attacks, to see whether or not terrorist attacks are related to the duration of civil war. The findings suggest that the number of terror attacks relates to the duration of civil war. A high number of terrorist attacks is a sufficient condition, but not a necessary condition for a prolonged civil war.