A mixture model of global Internet capacity distributions

Abstract

This article develops a preferential attachment-based mixture model of global Internet bandwidth and investigates it in the context of observed bandwidth distributions between 2002 and 2011. Our longitudinal analysis shows, among other things, that the bandwidth share distributions—and thus bandwidth differences—exhibit considerable path dependence where country proportions of international bandwidth in 2011 can be substantially accounted for by a preferential attachment-based mixture of micro-level processes. Our preferential attachment model, consistent with empirical data, does not predict increasing concentration of bandwidth within top-ranked countries. We argue that recognizing the strong, but nuanced, historical inertia of bandwidth distributions is helpful in better discriminating among competing theoretical perspectives on the global digital divide as well as in clarifying policy discussions related to gaps between bandwidth-rich and bandwidth-poor countries.