Factors that Most Influence Success or Failure in Illicit Crop Reduction and Drug Supply Control

Abstract

Several interrelated drivers of illicit crop cultivation appear remarkably consistent across virtually all illegal crop producing regions: insurgency or armed conflict, insufficient state authority and weak territorial control, a climate of instability, poverty and food insecurity, remoteness and a lack of infrastructure and development. This research paper argues that the enduring success of illicit crop reduction and drug supply control efforts in a given area depends on the extent to which these environmental factors are mitigated or eliminated. The work further proposes that properly designed, carefully coordinated, and consistently funded alternative development (AD) programs have demonstrated the greatest promise for dramatically altering the primary drivers underlying illegal drug crop cultivation. By contrast, it contends that forced crop eradication without the prior establishment of effective AD can and has often resulted in dramatic short-term reductions in drug crop yields while exacerbating the fundamental causes of illicit cultivation. The research employs two case-oriented methods of qualitative analysis. First, a within-case method of process tracing is used, followed by a method of comparative analysis between the three case studies: Thailand and Laos in Southeast Asia, and Colombia in South America.