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    Divergence Rates of Markov Order Estimators and Their Application to Statistical Estimation of Stationary Ergodic Processes

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    TalataZ_BJ_19(3)846.pdf (376.8Kb)
    Issue Date
    2013-09-05
    Author
    Talata, Zsolt
    Publisher
    Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability
    Type
    Article
    Article Version
    Scholarly/refereed, publisher version
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    Abstract
    Stationary ergodic processes with finite alphabets are estimated by finite memory processes from a sample, an n-length realization of the process, where the memory depth of the estimator process is also estimated from the sample using penalized maximum likelihood (PML). Under some assumptions on the continuity rate and the assumption of non-nullness, a rate of convergence in d¯-distance is obtained, with explicit constants. The result requires an analysis of the divergence of PML Markov order estimators for not necessarily finite memory processes. This divergence problem is investigated in more generality for three information criteria: the Bayesian information criterion with generalized penalty term yielding the PML, and the normalized maximum likelihood and the Krichevsky–Trofimov code lengths. Lower and upper bounds on the estimated order are obtained. The notion of consistent Markov order estimation is generalized for infinite memory processes using the concept of oracle order estimates, and generalized consistency of the PML Markov order estimator is presented.
    Description
    This is the published version, also available here: http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/12-BEJ468.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/1808/17224
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.3150/12-BEJ468
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    • Mathematics Scholarly Works [262]
    Citation
    Talata, Zsolt. Divergence rates of Markov order estimators and their application to statistical estimation of stationary ergodic processes. Bernoulli 19 (2013), no. 3, 846--885. http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/12-BEJ468.

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    Contact KU ScholarWorks
    785-864-8983
    KU Libraries
    1425 Jayhawk Blvd
    Lawrence, KS 66045
    785-864-8983

    KU Libraries
    1425 Jayhawk Blvd
    Lawrence, KS 66045
    Image Credits
     

     

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