Climate change effects on Neotropical manakin diversity based on ecological niche modeling

Abstract

Assessing the nature and magnitude of potentialeffects of climate change on populations isimportant to anticipating effects on speciesdiversity for conservation planning. We usedecological niche modeling to predict present andfuture distributions of 49 species of manakins(Pipridae) and allies. Predictions forpresent-day distributions were highly coincidentwith independent test data, suggesting goodpredictive ability. Assuming no dispersal,projections of potential distributions underfour scenarios of climate change predicted that20% of manakin species would likely goextinct from their current ranges, and thatdistributions would in general be reduced andfragmented, regardless of the area ofpresent-day potential distribution or rarity.Predicted changes in potential distributions,spatial configuration of suitable habitats, andgeographic position of species ranges were moredramatic for species inhabiting flatlands thanfor montane species. These results are anexample of how ecological niche modelingtechniques can anticipate the nature andmagnitude of changes in biodiversity in responseto climate change.