ATTENTION: The software behind KU ScholarWorks is being upgraded to a new version. Starting July 15th, users will not be able to log in to the system, add items, nor make any changes until the new version is in place at the end of July. Searching for articles and opening files will continue to work while the system is being updated.
If you have any questions, please contact Marianne Reed at mreed@ku.edu .
Cluster-based early warning indicators for political change in the contemporary levant
dc.contributor.author | Schrodt, Philip A. | |
dc.contributor.author | Gerner, Deborah J. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2007-05-03T23:59:05Z | |
dc.date.available | 2007-05-03T23:59:05Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2000-12 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Schrodt, PA; Gerner, DJ. Cluster-based early warning indicators for political change in the contemporary levant. AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW. December 2000. 94(4) : 803-817 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1808/1516 | |
dc.description.abstract | We we cluster analysis to develop a model of political change in the Levant as reflected in the World Event Interaction Survey coded event data generated from Reuters between 1979 and 1998. A new statistical algorithm that uses the correlation between dyadic behaviors at two times identities clusters of political activity. The transition to a new cluster occurs when a point is closer in distance to subsequent points than to preceding ones. These clusters begin to "stretch" before breaking apart, which served as an early warning indicator. The clusters correspond well with phases of political behavior identified a priori. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the clustering and early waltzing measures are not random; they perform very differently in simulated data: sets with similar statistical characteristics. Our study demonstrates that the statistical analysis of newswire reports can yield systematic early warning indicators, and it provides empirical supper? for the theoretical concept of distinct behavioral phases in political activity. | |
dc.language.iso | en_US | |
dc.publisher | AMER POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOC | |
dc.title | Cluster-based early warning indicators for political change in the contemporary levant | |
dc.type | Article | |
kusw.kuauthor | Schrodt, Philip A. | |
dc.identifier.orcid | https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3495-4198 | |
dc.rights.accessrights | openAccess |
Files in this item
This item appears in the following Collection(s)
-
Kansas African Studies Center Scholarly Works [272]
Publications by faculty and researchers affiliated with the Kansas African Studies Center -
Political Science Scholarly Works [65]