What predicts whether foreign doctorate recipients from U.S. institutions stay in the United States

Abstract

This study examines the trend of foreign doctorate recipients from U.S. higher education institutions who decided to stay in the United States after their degree completion, and it explores individual, institutional, and country factors predicting whether the foreign doctorate recipients stay in the United States or return home. Analyzing data from the Survey of Earned Doctorates by the National Science Foundation, this study focuses on foreign doctorate recipients in science and engineering fields from 20 sending countries during 2000 to 2010. Whether or not a foreign doctorate recipient in science and engineering fields decides to stay in the United State significantly affects the economic performance, knowledge flow, and innovation of both the United States and sending countries. This study uses the push-pull theory of international migration with an economic perspective as a lens to understand individuals' decisions to stay in the United States. Approximately 81% of the study sample decided to stay in the United States after they earned their PhD degrees. Chinese doctorate recipients were most likely to stay; however, a slowdown of Chinese doctorate recipients' staying was detected in recent years. A series of logistic regressions show that while individual characteristics and their home country variables greatly predict foreign doctorate recipients' decisions to stay in the United States, where they earned their doctoral degrees does not significantly influence their decisions to stay in the United States, except in the most prestigious institutions. Foreign doctorate recipients who planned to work in industry were more likely to stay in the United States, while those who graduated from the most prestigious doctoral programs were more likely to leave the United States. The home country's high unemployment rate tended to increase the foreign doctorate recipients' odds of staying in the United States. The country of origin was an important predictor of the stay pattern. These findings suggest important implications for the U.S. visa policies regarding recruiting foreign-born highly skilled workers and international students. For sending countries, the findings imply that improving their higher education sector and creating R&D employment in their home countries would decrease the brain drain of their students over the long term.