Stability and Nukes: China's Domestic Concerns over North Korea's Nuclear Program

Abstract

While the bilateral friendship between China and North Korea was solidified and endured during the Korean war, Beijing's ties to Pyongyang have weakened considerably during the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula, which emerged in October 2002. Although China is leading the six-party talks, China is still trading with North Korea. What explains this puzzle? Is China more concerned with domestic stability than a nuclearized North Korea? Realist theory suggests that all states are unitary and have the same foreign policy goals, which are self-preservation and national security without considering regime type or domestic politics. While liberal theory suggests that domestic politics and domestic concerns influence foreign policy. If China follows a realist foreign policy, then trade policy towards North Korea and goals of the six-party talks would be the same. If China follows a liberal theory, then we may observe a contradiction between trade and the goals of the six-party talks. Through analyzing the data of China's export trade to North Korea and China's statements about North Korea's nuclear program, I hypothesize that China is more concerned with domestic stability than the denuclearization of North Korea. From the liberal perspective, domestic social stability is more important concern for China than international anarchy in realist terms.