Predicting the Potential Worldwide Distribution of the Red Palm Weevil Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) using Ecological Niche Modeling
Issue Date
2012-09-01Author
Fiaboe, K. K. M.
Peterson, A. Townsend
Kairo, M. T. K.
Roda, A. L.
Publisher
Florida Entomological Society
Type
Article
Article Version
Scholarly/refereed, publisher version
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
The red palm weevil (RPW), Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), ranks among the most important pests of various palm species. The pest originates from South and Southeast Asia, but has expanded its range dramatically since the 1980s. We used ecological niche modeling (ENM) approaches to explore its likely geographic potential. Two techniques, the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and a maximum entropy approach (MaxEnt), were used. However, MaxEnt provided more significant results, with all 5 random replicate subsamples having P < 0.002 while GARP models failed to achieve statistical significance in 3 of 5 cases, in which predictions achieved probabilities of 0.07 < P < 0.10. The MaxEnt models predicted successfully the known distribution, including the single North American occurrence point of Laguna Beach, California, and various areas where the pest has been reported in North Africa, southern Europe, Middle East and South and Southeastern Asia. In addition, areas where the pest has not been yet reported were found to be suitable for invasion by RPW in sub-Saharan Africa, southern, central and northern America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. Highly suitable areas in the United States of America were limited mostly to coastal California and southern Florida, while all Caribbean islands were found highly suitable for establishment and spread of the pest.
Description
This is the publisher's version, also available electronically from http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.1653/024.095.0317.
ISSN
0015-4040Collections
Citation
Fiaboe, K.K.M.; Peterson, A. T.; Kairo, M.T.K; Roda, A.L. 2012. Predicting the Potential Worldwide Distribution of the Red Palm Weevil Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) using Ecological Niche Modeling. Florida Entomologist 95:659-673. http://dx.doi.org/10.1653/024.095.0317
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