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    Mapping Monkeypox Transmission Risk through Time and Space in the Congo Basin

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    Nakazawa.pdf (1.241Mb)
    Issue Date
    2013-09-05
    Author
    Nakazawa, Yoshinori
    Lash, R. Ryan
    Carroll, Darin S.
    Damon, Inger K.
    Karem, Kevin
    Reynolds, Mary G.
    Osorio, Jorge E.
    Rocke, Tonie E.
    Malekani, Jean M.
    Muyembe, Jean-Jacques
    Formenty, Pierre
    Peterson, A. Townsend
    Publisher
    Public Library of Science
    Type
    Article
    Article Version
    Scholarly/refereed, publisher version
    Rights
    This is an open-access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.
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    Abstract
    Monkeypox is a major public health concern in the Congo Basin area, with changing patterns of human case occurrences reported in recent years. Whether this trend results from better surveillance and detection methods, reduced proportions of vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated human populations, or changing environmental conditions remains unclear. Our objective is to examine potential correlations between environment and transmission of monkeypox events in the Congo Basin. We created ecological niche models based on human cases reported in the Congo Basin by the World Health Organization at the end of the smallpox eradication campaign, in relation to remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index datasets from the same time period. These models predicted independent spatial subsets of monkeypox occurrences with high confidence; models were then projected onto parallel environmental datasets for the 2000s to create present-day monkeypox suitability maps. Recent trends in human monkeypox infection are associated with broad environmental changes across the Congo Basin. Our results demonstrate that ecological niche models provide useful tools for identification of areas suitable for transmission, even for poorly-known diseases like monkeypox.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/1808/13273
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0074816
    Collections
    • Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies Scholarly Works [741]
    • Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Scholarly Works [1179]
    • Biodiversity Institute & Natural History Museum Scholarly Works [229]
    • Distinguished Professors Scholarly Works [918]
    Citation
    Nakazawa, Y., Lash, R. R., Carroll, D. S., Damon, I. K., Karem, K. L., Reynolds, M. G., … Peterson, A. T. (2013). Mapping Monkeypox Transmission Risk through Time and Space in the Congo Basin. PLoS ONE, 8(9). http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0074816

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    Contact KU ScholarWorks
    785-864-8983
    KU Libraries
    1425 Jayhawk Blvd
    Lawrence, KS 66045
    785-864-8983

    KU Libraries
    1425 Jayhawk Blvd
    Lawrence, KS 66045
    Image Credits
     

     

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