The Middle Class in the Middle Kingdom: Regime Support for the Chinese Leadership?

Abstract

Over the last thirty years China has witnessed economic development at an extraordinary rate. China has also developed a growing urban middle class. However, China remains the world's largest authoritarian regime. Modernization Theory suggests the middle class drives regime change from authoritarian forms of government to more open and democratic forms of governance. Does the middle class in China display the lower levels of support for non-democratic leadership, suggested by Modernization Theory, compared to other classes? Using data both from World Values Survey and a joint Texas A&M and Peking University survey, I find the Chinese middle class does not display the unique low levels of support suggested by Modernization Theory. The data suggests the Jiang Zemin's "Three Represents" (三个代表 - Sāngè Dàibiǎo) has been a highly effective policy. The "Three Represents" opened the Party to businessmen and entrepreneurs, individuals previously seen as class enemies of the Chinese people while continuing to expand economic opportunity. Had Jiang Zemin not implement the "Three Represents," it is likely the Party would have alienated the growing middle class and perhaps China would have developed as Modernization Theory suggests.