Predicting the Onset of Intra-State Conflict in Eurasia

Abstract

While much of the contemporary quantitative research in intra-state conflicts focuses on explaining the causes of these conflicts using large-N studies, these models have limited forecasting power, i.e., they cannot be used in making predictions about whether or not an intra-state conflict will occur with a high degree of certainty. To that end this paper utilizes a forecasting model developed by D'Orazio, Yonamine and Schrodt and applies it for predicting the onset of intra-state conflict in Eurasia, which encompasses the former Soviet republics of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The region was chosen due to a high incidence of intra-state conflict and proximity to the states analyzed by D'Orazio. Sample size was kept small due to manpower limitations. Event data was collected from news sources and a bivariate logit model was used to analyze patterns in the event data sequences in the 12 weeks preceding onsets of conflict and peace from 1990-2011. Although the results indicated that the model was not able to predict onsets of conflict with a high level of accuracy, this level of predicting power is attributed to the limitations of the original data rather than the model itself. The Eurasian model showed patterns similar to that of the original model, providing support for the observation that conflicts do not have a similar escalation pattern. Rather each conflict tends to be preceded by an event sequence, which is dissimilar both to peace sequences and other conflict onsets. In other words, the events leading up to intra-state conflicts tend to be unique to each conflict; there is no one pattern of events which leads to conflict.