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The Sources of Life Chances: Does Education, Class Category, Occupation, or Short-Term Earnings Predict 20-Year Long-Term Earnings?
Kim, ChangHwan Tamborini, Christopher R. Sakamoto, Arthur
Kim, ChangHwan
Tamborini, Christopher R.
Sakamoto, Arthur
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Abstract
In sociological studies of economic stratification and intergenerational mobility, occupation
has long been presumed to reflect lifetime earnings better than do short-term earnings. However, few
studies have actually tested this critical assumption. In this study, we investigate the cross-sectional
determinants of 20-year accumulated earnings using data that match respondents in the Survey of
Income and Program Participation to their longitudinal earnings records based on administrative
tax information from 1990 to 2009. Fit statistics of regression models are estimated to assess
the predictive power of various proxy variables, including occupation, education, and short-term
earnings, on cumulative earnings over the 20-year time period. Contrary to the popular assumption in
sociology, our results find that cross-sectional earnings have greater predictive power on long-term
earnings than occupation-based class classifications, including three-digit detailed occupations
for both men and women. The model based on educational attainment, including field of study,
has slightly better fit than models based on one-digit occupation or the Erikson, Goldthorpe, and
Portocarero class scheme. We discuss the theoretical implications of these findings for the sociology
of stratification and intergenerational mobility
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Date
2018-03-21
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Society for Sociological Science
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Keywords
Long-term earnings, Educational attainment, Occupation, Class, Administrative data
Citation
Kim, ChangHwan, Christopher R. Tamborini, and Arthur Sakamoto. 2018. “The Sources of Life Chances: Does Education, Class Category, Occupation or Short-Term Earnings Predict 20-Year Long-Term Earnings?” Sociological Science 5:206-233.