Gentry, JodiSturm, BelindaPeterson, A. Townsend2017-10-132017-10-132016-06-06Gentry J, Sturm B, Peterson AT. Predictive Mapping of Transmission Risk of a Soil-Transmitted Helminth across East Africa: Findings from Community Prevalence Surveys. J Public Health Dev Ctries. 2016; 2(2): 150-161.https://hdl.handle.net/1808/25137Background: Despite being identified as a major health concern and neglected tropical disease, Ascariasis, caused by Ascaris lumbricoides, a soil-transmitted helminth, ranks among the most common infections worldwide. Methods: Based on prevalence data from the community surveys across East Africa for 1975-2009, we used ecological niche modeling to summarize and predict the spatial distribution of A. lumbricoides’ transmission risk. Results: Projection of this model across East Africa identified 51.4% of the region as suitable for A. lumbricoides transmission, with least suitable areas in the Sahara and the Somali-Chalbi deserts. Partial area under the curve (AUC) tests based on independent data showed that our model predictions were better than random expectations in predicting infection risk of A. lumbricoides; the model successfully identified areas of high and low infection risk in Ethiopia and Eritrea. Conclusions: Although preliminary, this occurrence-environment mapping approach provides predictions that can guide education and mitigation efforts in the broader East African region.© The Authors 2016. All rights reserved, JPHDC. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Ascaris lumbricoidesHelminthParasitic wormEcological niche modelingMappingTransmission riskAfricaArticleopenAccess