| dc.description.abstract | At XYZ Corporation (XYZ), the standard method of creating aircraft performance guarantees does not incorporate engineering risk or uncertainty. Since performance guarantees are a contractual agreement to the customer, the customer is not obligated to take delivery of the aircraft if the guarantees are not met. This results in considerable financial loss and immeasurable damage to the company’s reputation. Because of this, the need for a simple method of evaluating the risk of a performance guarantee arose.
Although a myriad of risk assessment techniques exist in literature, a specific technique for performance guarantees was not available. This research develops a specific statistical risk assessment method (SRAM) that fits with XYZ’s tools and culture. By implementing sensitivity analysis, design of experiments, response surface modeling, and Monte Carlo simulation, a Risk / Guarantee matrix can be developed. This matrix compares the level of risk associated with a particular performance value, allowing Management to select a guarantee based upon the amount of risk the company is willing to accept. In its initial implementation, SRAM successfully led Management to select a takeoff field length guarantee more conservative than initially desired due to the initial value’s risk. Additionally, the other two desired performance values (range and maximum speed) were found to be within acceptable risk; therefore, they were selected for guarantees.
Potentially the greatest value of SRAM is its ability to evaluate risk in areas outside of performance guarantees. This research found that SRAM’s potential for evaluating airplane configuration risk can greatly reduce the probability that a new product falls short of desired performance, ultimately reducing down stream engineering cost. Identified as an extremely valuable tool, SRAM can potentially be applied in countless other aspects of design and engineering to better understand variation and assess risk. | |
