Loading...
Are Changes in the Mean or Variability of Climate Signals More Important for Long-Term Stochastic Growth Rate?
García-Carreras, Bernardo Reuman, Daniel C.
García-Carreras, Bernardo
Reuman, Daniel C.
Citations
Altmetric:
Abstract
Population dynamics are affected by changes in both the mean and standard deviation of climate, e.g., changes in average
temperature are likely to affect populations, but so are changes in the strength of year-to-year temperature variability. The
impacts of increases in average temperature are extensively researched, while the impacts of changes in climate variability
are less studied. Is the greater attention given to changes in mean environment justified? To help answer this question we
developed a simple population model, explicitly linked to an environmental process. We used the model to compare the
sensitivities of a population’s long-term stochastic growth rate, a measure of fitness, to changes in the mean and standard
deviation of the environment. Results are interpreted in light of a comparative analysis of the relative magnitudes of change
in means and standard deviations of biologically relevant climate variables in the United States. Results show that changes
in the variability of the environment can be more important for many populations. Changes in mean conditions are likely to
have a greater impact than changes in variability on populations far from their ideal environment, for example, populations
near species range boundaries and potentially of conservation concern. Populations near range centres and close to their
ideal environment are more likely to be affected by changes in variability. Among pest and insect disease vectors, as well as
species of commercial value, populations likely to be of greatest economic and public health significance are those near
species range centers, living in a near-ideal environment for the species. Observed changes in the variability of climate
variables may benefit these populations.
Description
Date
2013-05-14
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Public Library of Science
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Keywords
Citation
García-Carreras B, Reuman DC (2013) Are Changes in the Mean or Variability of Climate Signals More Important for Long-Term Stochastic Growth Rate? PLoS ONE 8(5): e63974. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0063974