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Geographic potential for outbreaks of Marburg hemorrhagic fever
Peterson, A. Townsend Lash, R. Ryan Carroll, Darin S. Johnson, Karl M.
Peterson, A. Townsend
Lash, R. Ryan
Carroll, Darin S.
Johnson, Karl M.
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Abstract
Marburg virus represents one of the least well-known of the hemorrhagic fever-causing viruses worldwide;
in particular, its geographic potential in Africa remains quite mysterious. Ecologic niche modeling was used to explore
the geographic and ecologic potential of Marburg virus in Africa. Model results permitted a reinterpretation of the
geographic point of infection in the initiation of the 1975 cases in Zimbabwe, and also anticipated the potential for cases
in Angola, where a large outbreak recently (2004–2005) occurred. The geographic potential for additional outbreaks is
outlined, including in several countries in which the virus is not known. Overall, results demonstrate that ecologic niche
modeling can be a powerful tool in understanding geographic distributions of species and other biologic phenomena such
as zoonotic disease transmission from natural reservoir populations.
Description
Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 75(1), 2006, pp. 9–15
Copyright © 2006 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
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http://www.ajtmh.org/cgi/content/abstract/75/1/9
Date
2006
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American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
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Citation
Peterson, A. T., R. R. Lash, D. S. Carroll, and K. M. Johnson. 2006a. Geographic potential for outbreaks of Marburg hemorrhagic fever. American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene 75:9-15.