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The Kansas Economy: Trends and Outlook

Krider, Charles
Clifford, Norman
Conde, Fernando
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Abstract
From 1980 to 1997, Kansas population grew at an annual average of 0.5 percent, which was one-half the U.S. average annual growth rate. During the same period, the population of large metropolitan counties increased more than twice the state's annual growth rate. Comparatively, medium counties (population>20,000) increased at a slower rate than the state, while small counties (population<20,000) decreased in population. Small counties share of state population declined from 25 percent in 1980 to 21 percent in 1997. Martin Tractor counties population increased slightly from 853,623 in 1980 to 853,922 in 1997; its share of Kansas population decreased from 36.1 percent in 1980 to 32.9 percent in 1997. Total employment in Kansas grew 17.3 percent from 1985 to 1995. Employment growth in large metropolitan counties (27.4%) was 58 percent faster than the state and 36 percent faster than the nation. Conversely, employment in small counties decreased slightly (-0.7%) during this period. Manufacturing jobs grew much faster in small and medium communities than in large metropolitan counties. The manufacturing sector's share of total employment increased in all county groups except large metropolitan counties. Both the retail and service industry's share of total employment increased while farm employment's share consistently decreased in all county groups. From 1985 to 1995, the total number of jobs in Martin Tractor counties (50 total) grew 11.9 percent, which is approximately two-thirds the state's job growth rate. During the same period, Martin Tractor counties experienced the largest percent job increases in agricultural services followed by retail trade, services, government, and manufacturing. Martin Tractor counties experienced decreased employment in mining (oil & gas), farming, and transportation. In 1995, government remains the largest employer in Martin Tractor counties, followed by services and retail trade. From 1980 through 1997, average wage per job in the large metro counties was consistently higher than the state average while all other county groups are less than the state average. The average wage per job in Martin Tractor's sales territory was lower than in the large metro counties and the state as a whole in 1995. From 1980 to 1997, large metro counties enjoyed the highest average wages per job in Kansas. Small counties' average wages were consistently below all other county groups. Per capita personal income has steadily increased for all county groups since 1980 except for small counties, which experienced -1.54 percent and -0.26 percent decreases in 1991 and 1995, respectively. In 1995, Martin Tractor counties per capita personal income (18,639 USD) was less than that of large metro counties, medium counties, and the state, but greater than small counties. The Kansas population will average roughly 0.5 percent population growth from 1997 through 2010. The nine counties in the Kansas side of Kansas City, Wichita, Lawrence, and Topeka metropolitan areas will continue to grow faster than the state as a whole, growing nearly 1 percent per year on average over the period. The rest of the state (the 96 non-metro counties) will continue to exhibit sluggish population growth, averaging less than 0.2 percent growth over the period. Within the metropolitan areas, the Kansas side of the Kansas City metropolitan area will add population in the largest numbers, followed by the Wichita metropolitan area. The Lawrence metropolitan area will show the fastest rate of growth, while the Topeka metropolitan area will grow more slowly than the state as a whole. The number of Kansans employed will grow nearly 2 percent per year during the next three years (1998-2000). This growth rate will slow to 1.3 percent during the 2000-2007 period. These projections can be placed in perspective by observing that the average rate of employment growth over the twenty year period from 1977-1997 was 1.3 percent, while the recent rate of employment growth has been well above that figure. Thus, the short-run projections reflect the notion that the Kansas economy is for the time being performing at an above-average level, whereas the longer-run projections reflect a return to the long-run average rate of growth. The construction, retail trade, and service industries will add jobs at the fastest rates over the short and the long run. The transportation and utilities, wholesale trade, manufacturing, and finance, insurance, and real estate sectors will all exhibit solid growth. The mining sector will continue to lose jobs at the rate of between 1 and 2 percent per year. Farm employment will decline 1.3 percent per year, consistent with the twenty-year historical trend. State and local government jobs will grow 1.5 percent per year, near the long-run trend, while federal government jobs will decline at a modest rate.
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1998-06
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Institute for Public Policy and Business Research, University of Kansas
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Charles Krider, Norman Clifford, and Fernando Conde. The Kansas Economy: Trends and Outlook. Institute for Public Policy and Business Research, University of Kansas. Technical Report Series: 41 (June 1998; 60 pages).
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